Measles is back. Blame the anti-vaxxers.

In the year 2000, the CDC announced that measles had been eliminated from the U.S. This was a fantastic public health achievement, made possible by the measles vaccine, which is 99% effective and which has virtually no side effects.

Unfortunately, measles is back. Just last week, the CDC announced that we've had at least 695 cases this year, the most since 2000, primarily from 3 large outbreaks, one in the state of Washington and two in New York. Because the CDC's surveillance is far from perfect, the true number of measles cases is likely much higher. And we're only four months into the year.

Also this week, UCLA and CalState-LA had to quarantine over 700 students and staff members who were exposed to measles from an outbreak in the Los Angeles area. At UCLA, one student who had measles attended multiple classes while still contagious, exposing hundreds of others to the highly contagious virus, according to a message from the university's chancellor.

No one has died as of yet, but if we don't quash these outbreaks, it's only a matter of time before someone will die. Measles has a fatality rate of 0.2%, or 2 deaths per thousand cases. That may sound small, but it's truly frightening when you consider that the U.S. had an estimated 500,000 cases per year before the vaccine was introduced in 1963.

Given the risks of measles, and given the remarkable effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, why don't people vaccinate their children? The primary reason is simple: it's the highly vocal, supremely confident, and utterly misinformed anti-vaccine movement. Anti-vaxxers spread their message daily on Facebook, Twitter, websites, and other media outlets. (I will not link to any of them here because I don't want to increase their influence.) They have launched systematic efforts throughout the U.S. and in other countries to convince parents not to vaccinate their children, claiming that vaccines cause a variety of harms, none of which are correct. (I won't list those here either, because even mentioning them gives the claims credibility.)

In one of the two outbreaks in New York, anti-vaxxers distributed highly misleading pamphlets in an effort to convince parents in an ultra-religious Jewish community not to vaccinate their kids. The anonymously-published pamphlet was "filled with wild conspiracy theories and inaccurate data," but it seems to have worked, as least among some of the parents.

The anti-vax movement is also behind the state-by-state effort to allow parents to opt out of vaccinations for their children in public schools. We're finally seeing some states roll this back, but it is still far too easy for parents to claim an "ethical" or "religious" exemption, allowing them to put their unvaccinated kids in school and thereby expose countless other children to measles and other preventable diseases. (I put those words in quotes because there is no valid ethical or religious objection to vaccines. All major religions strongly support vaccination.) Anti-vax websites provide how-to instructions telling parents how to get exemptions for their kids, and a small number of anti-vax doctors (I'm looking at you, Bob Sears) readily dispense large numbers of anti-vax exemptions. This needs to end.

The modern anti-vaccine movement started in 1998, with a fraudulent paper about the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine, published by a former doctor who lost his medical license after the fraud was revealed. The lead author was eventually revealed to have taken large sums of money (unbeknownst to his co-authors) from lawyers who were trying to build a case to sue vaccine makers. That same ex-doctor, who I also won't name here (his initials are AW), is now a hero to the anti-vax movement, and he travels the world spreading his toxic message. He's even made an anti-vax movie.

I sincerely hope we won't see any children die before the anti-vaccine movement finally goes away. For any parents who are thinking that they won't vaccinate their kids, I urge them to read the heartbreaking words of Roald Dahl (author of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, The BFG, and many other wonderful books), whose oldest daughter Olivia died of measles in 1962, at the age of seven:

"...one morning, when [Olivia] was well on the road to recovery, I was sitting on her bed showing her how to fashion little animals out of coloured pipe-cleaners, and when it came to her turn to make one herself, I noticed that her fingers and her mind were not working together and she couldn't do anything.

'Are you feeling all right?' I asked her.

'I feel all sleepy,' she said.In an hour, she was unconscious. In twelve hours she was dead.The measles had turned into a terrible thing called measles encephalitis and there was nothing the doctors could do to save her." 

The measles vaccine was a miracle of modern medicine, and it's been administered safely to hundreds of millions of people. Measles is a dangerous illness, but we can prevent it. No parent should have to go through what Roald Dahl went through.

Germany takes action to stem measles outbreak. Anti-vaxxers to blame–again.

Measles is on the rise in Europe, driven by "vaccine gaps" which in turn are due to misinformation about the benefits of vaccines. Vaccines are possibly the single greatest contribution to human health in the past century. Literally millions of people are alive today who would not be, thanks to vaccines.

And yet: vaccine rates have dropped in recent years in multiple countries. In March, the BBC reported that measles had become endemic (meaning that it is self-sustaining, continuing to spread within the country) in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Switzerland and Ukraine. The worst measles outbreak is in Romania, which reported over 3,400 cases and 17 deaths in just the first 3 months of this year.

Now measles is spreading in Germany, which is scrambling to contain it. Germany had 504 cases through mid-April, versus just 33 cases for the same period last year. At least one person, a young mother of three children, has died. The primary reason for the spread of the disease, as reported by the German news outlet RT, is unvaccinated individuals, and the reason their numbers are growing is simple: the anti-vaccine movement.

In the U.S., the anti-vaccine movement caused the worst measles outbreak in 20 years in 2015. The outbreak in Germany appears even worse, despite the fact that parents can be fined as much as €2500 ($2800) for failing to vaccinate their children. In a remarkable effort to try to get this outbreak under control, the German parliament has decided to require kindergartens to report parents who don't vaccinate their kids. Let's hope this works.

Vaccination is safe and remarkably effective, but the anti-vax movement is furiously trying to convince parents not to vaccinate. Their latest gambit is "Vaxxed," a conspiracy-mongering anti-vaccine screen produced by Andrew Wakefield, the notorious ex-doctor who published a fraudulent (and later retracted) study claiming that MMR vaccines caused autism. Nearly 20 years later, despite Wakefield losing his medical license because of his "elaborate fraud," he continues to push his debunked claims.

Fortunately, many people are now pushing back. Just last week, noted New Zealand physician Dr. Lance O'Sullivan jumped up on stage at a screening of "Vaxxed" to warn people in the audience that they were being defrauded. O'Sullivan was named New Zealander of the Year in 2014 for his efforts to bring health care to disadvantaged people in rural areas. I will close with his words from a Radio New Zealand story describing the dangers of vaccine refusal:

"We are trying to save a child's life, we put it on a helicopter, it flies to Starship Hospital. The kidneys are failing, its heart's failing, its lungs are failing. All because we didn't put a bloody $7.50 meningococcal vaccine into that child's thigh."

MMR vaccine (still) doesn't cause autism, new study finds

Nope.

We’re still spending vast amounts of time and money trying to counter the ill effects of a discredited, retracted paper from 1998 that claimed to find a link between the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine and autism. Even after the The Lancet retracted the study, and even after the British Medical Council revoked the medical license of its lead author, Andrew Wakefield, many people continue to withhold vaccines from their children because of a fear that somehow, despite all the evidence to the contrary, vaccines might cause autism. Vaccines, I hasten to add, have saved millions of lives and are probably the greatest medical advance of the past two centuries.

Now another study has appeared to add more weight to the evidence about the safely of the MMR vaccine. The new study by Anjali Jain and colleagues, just published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, looked at a huge number of children–95,727–for evidence of any link between autism and the MMR vaccine.

The results were not surprising, to those who have been following the science. To quote the conclusions directly: 

“Receipt of the MMR vaccine was not associated with increased risk of ASD [autism spectrum disorder], regardless of whether older siblings had ASD. These findings indicate no harmful association between MMR vaccine receipt and ASD even among children already at higher risk for ASD.”

That should settle it, right? But then, dozens of previous studies should have already settled this question. Unfortunately, due to the ongoing activism of anti-vaccine groups such as Age of Autism, (who already attacked this new study) and to conspiracy theorists such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (whom I wrote about last summer, and who was campaigning against vaccines in Vermont just last week), misguided claims that vaccines cause autism or neurological problems persist.

Here are the numbers from the new study. The authors compared vaccinated children to unvaccinated children, using a huge database of medical claims that included at least 5 years of followup. (This was an "observational" study, by necessity–it would be unethical to withhold vaccines from children on purpose.) The relative risk for autism in children who had 2 doses of the MMR vaccine (the recommended amount) compared to unvaccinated children was 0.74. In other words, a child was somewhat less likely to be diagnosed with autism if he or she were vaccinated. 

Even more surprising was the relative risk among children who had an older sibling with autism: in this smaller group, children with 2 doses of MMR were just 44% as likely to be diagnosed with autism as unvaccinated children. This statistically significant finding indicates, unexpectedly, that vaccines might actually protect children from autism.

The authors were quick to note that there are other good reasons for this apparent protective effect of vaccines: in particular, if parents of autistic children withheld vaccines from their younger children, this could explain the effect. Why? Because we know that autism has a genetic component, and that if one child has autism, his younger sibling is more likely (because they share many genes) to have autism as well. Jain and colleagues explained that if these parents withheld vaccines–because of fears spread by the anti-vaccine movement–then their children could contribute to the apparently lower rate of autism in children who were vaccinated. The authors couldn’t rule out a protective effect of vaccines, but scientifically it seems unlikely, and they wisely offered an alternative explanation.

So: once again we have a large, carefully conducted study showing that the MMR vaccine does not cause autism, and even finding evidence that vaccinated children have lower rates of autism. Let's hope this study helps to end the anti-vax movement, so that we can soon stop spending time and money trying to refute their long-discredited hypotheses and instead focus on trying to understand the true cause.

Should a doctor fire an anti-vax patient?

The anti-vaccination movement continues to grow, despite the retraction and thorough discrediting of the 1998 scientific study that spurred much of its growth.  The stubborn persistence of anti-vaxxers shows how difficult it is to dispel misinformation once that information is out there, even after dozens of new studies and millions of dollars in research that demonstrate that vaccines are safe.

One of the most dangerous trends is the growing number of parents who refuse to vaccinate their kids, or who choose "alternative" vaccine schedules, such as the one promoted aggressively by Robert Sears (who goes by "Dr. Bob").  Sears appears to have simply invented this alternative schedule without bothering to conduct any scientific studies, in part to promote sales of his 2007 book, The Vaccine Book: Making the Right Decision for Your Child.  Vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit explained, in a 2009 article in the journal Pediatrics, why Dr. Sears' schedule was a very poor choice for children and for the public health.  After thoroughly dismantling Sears' anti-science positions, Offit concludes, "Sears has a poor grasp of the scientific method."  That's an understatement.

Other doctors, perhaps jealous of all the attention that Sears has gained through his anti-vaccine writings and television appearances, have created their own alternative vaccine schedules.  One of them, Donald Miller, even goes so far as to say that vaccines cause childhood cancer, despite the complete lack of evidence for this wild claim.  Somehow Sears, Miller, and others like them have managed to convince many parents that their children don't need vaccines.

In response to parents who don't want to vaccinate, many of whom show up with Dr. Bob's schedule in hand, pediatricians have struggled to find an effective response.  Parents can be utterly convinced by the misinformation they find on the Internet, which is all too easy to find.  (For example, Googling "vaccine" brings up the National Vaccine Information Center, a hotbed of anti-vaccine propaganda and pseudoscience, on the first page of hits.)  By the time parents arrive with their babies for the first vaccine, convincing them to change their minds can be nearly impossible.

Perhaps in frustration, doctors have started to "fire" their patients if they refuse to vaccinate.  As reported by Shirley Wang in The Wall St. Journal last week, 20-30% of doctors in two different surveys, in Connecticut and the Midwest, reported having to kick patients out of their practices because of vaccine refusal.  These numbers have roughly doubled over the past ten years, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Is firing a patient the right thing to do? It's a difficult question.  On the one hand, doctors should do everything they can to make sure kids are vaccinated.   If a doctor kicks a parent out, that parent may find another doctor who doesn't insist on vaccinating children, which ultimately harms the children.  Doctors have to spend more time educating parents about the tremendous benefit of vaccines, about the very strong evidence (based on tens of millions of doses) for vaccine safety, and about the frightening consequences of infection with meningitis, hepatitis, measles, polio, and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

On the other hand, unvaccinated children bring diseases into the pediatrician's office, where they can spread them to other children.  Some of these other children are too young to be vaccinated, and childhood infections can be extremely dangerous, even fatal, in the very young.  From this perspective, "firing" a patient might be the only responsible action, after first trying to convince the parents to vaccinate.  I know that I wouldn't want to bring my child to a doctor's office where unvaccinated children were in the same room.

I understand how nervous a parent can be about vaccinations.  I will never forget the day my older daughter got her first vaccine: the needle looked huge compared to her tiny leg, and she screamed when the doctor gave her the shot.  But she was fine a few minutes later, and she'll be protected against a dangerous infection for her entire life.  Vaccines have been so successful at eliminating childhood infections that parents no longer see these infections as a threat.  Ironically, the very success of vaccines has allowed the anti-vaccine movement to sway so many people.

Doctors may have to keep firing the parents of their young patients, but I hope they'll first make every effort to educate them.  They need to explain that vaccines do not cause autism, nor do the ingredients in vaccines, and that scientific studies involving hundreds of thousands of patients support these conclusions.  They should also explain that many of the anti-vaccination claims on the Internet started when Andrew Wakefield published one small study of 12 patients, now retracted, claiming a link between the MMR vaccine and autism.  Investigations later revealed that he was paid by lawyers to recruit patients for a lawsuit against vaccine makers, that he didn't reveal these payments to his co-authors or the patients, and that he manipulated the data.  Since then, the anti-vaccine movement has exploded and we've experienced multiple outbreaks of measles, mumps, and other illnesses linked directly to unvaccinated children.

Doctors interviewed by the Wall St. Journal reported that they had convinced at least some parents to follow the recommended vaccine schedule.  Perhaps that's the best we can hope for.  If we're going to avoid a return to the era when children routinely died from infections, we must keep trying.

Measles invades U.S.: anti-vaccine movement scores again

How can we keep unvaccinated people from bringing infectious diseases into the U.S.? These diseases are a real threat to public health, and while we're spending billions on national security, almost all that money goes towards "security theater," such as full-body scanning equipment at airports, which does almost nothing to protect the public. We'd be much better off spending those scarce funds on detecting infections at the border.

In the most recent invasion, the measles virus has snuck in thanks to a single unvaccinated student from Utah, who picked up the disease in Poland. The junior high student traveled to Poland with his family to pick up his sister, who was there as a Mormon missionary. As reported by the Associated Press, up to 1000 people have already been exposed, and the circle could easily spread beyond that.

Measles is a dangerous and incredibly infectious virus, transmitting easily between people. According to the CDC:

"About one out of 10 children with measles also gets an ear infection, and up to one out of 20 gets pneumonia. For every 1,000 children who get measles, one or two will die."

This is not a disease to take lightly. Fortunately, the vaccine is highly effective, which means the real challenge is getting people to take it.

Utah requires measles vaccinations for public schools, but (as in many other states) parents can refuse vaccines for personal or religious reasons. California now has about 2% of parents refusing vaccines for their children for personal beliefs. This gaping hole in our public health system needs to be closed: if parents refuse to vaccinate their children, they are putting the rest of us at risk, and these children need to be kept out of public schools.

Most of the parents refusing vaccines for the children are doing so out of fear that vaccines cause harm. Despite countless studies showing that vaccines are safe (and in particular, that vaccines do not cause autism), these rumors persist, amplified greatly by the anti-vaccine movement, which seems impervious to evidence or reason.

Meanwhile, anti-vaccine groups such as Age of Autism are fighting to keep or even expand these exemptions. Other sites such as ThinkTwice.com http://www.thinktwice.com/laws.htm and Internet quacks Joseph Mercola and Sherri Tenpenny advise parents to refuse vaccination and use whatever loopholes they can to enroll their kids in school. Parents who follow this advice rely on the immunization of others to protect their own children, but they appear unconcerned about the risk they forcing on the rest of us. They also neglect to consider that vaccines are never 100% effective, so even those of us who vaccinate our kids are still bearing a greater risk by allowing the unvaccinated to attend school.

Europe has its own problems with vaccine coverage, and measles is spreading rapidly this year, having hit 24 countries so far. France had 3749 cases and one death in the first two months of this year. Many of the victims are children too young to be vaccinated, but the disease is often spread by people who simply refuse to get the vaccine.

The latest measles outbreak in Utah could have been avoided if the student involved had simply been vaccinated. Realistically, though, we will always have citizens traveling abroad and bringing infectious diseases back. If the U.S. really wants to use its security dollars wisely, we should implement greater screening at the border to keep these disesases out. We could start by telling people to get vaccinated before they leave the country. If they refuse, we could require them to be tested for infections when they return. We could implement this using funds we'd save when we stop telling everyone to take off their shoes at the airport.

Wakefield's claims about the MMR vaccine ruled "dishonest and irresponsible"

It's about time.

It took the General Medical Council (in the UK) nearly three years, but they finally issued a ruling about Andrew Wakefield's 1998 study that claimed a link between the MMR vaccine and autism. They ruled that he had acted "dishonestly and irresponsibly" in his research, and further that he didn't have the qualifications to be carrying out some of the experiments on children that he subjected them to. These experiments included colonoscopies and lumbar punctures, potentially dangerous and painful procedures. They also ruled that he behaved unethically when he paid the children £5 for their blood samples at his son's birthday party. (No, I'm not making this up.) He also filed for a patent on a "safer" vaccine that he was hoping to sell after he discredited the MMR vaccine. The GMC found all these behaviors amounted to "serious professional misconduct."

I've been writing about Wakefield's fraudulent for several years now, including posts last month, April 2009, April 2008, March 2008, and earlier. Many other scientists have written about him too, revealing that he was paid large sums of money by a lawyers' group for his research (which he failed to reveal to his collaborators or to the Lancet, where he published his work - another ethics breach pointed out by the MRC).

What's so awful about Wakefield's behavior is that it has directly contributed to a decline in vaccination rates, first in the UK and then in the US and elsewhere. A rise in measles cases - including a number of fatalities - can be directly attributed to this decline, as the BBC pointed out and illustrated with this figure:But it's not just measles: the anti-vaccine hysteria that Wakefield has encouraged over the years - and he's still at it - has also resulted in declining rates of vaccination for other childhood diseases, as I explained in my December 2009 post.

Meanwhile, scientists have conducted dozens of studies involving over one million people, searching for a link between vaccines and autism. No such link was found, because it doesn't exist. The Institute of Medicine conducted 8 studies and concluded after exhaustive research that vaccines had no link to autism. Despite this, Wakefield remains defiant and continues to claim that vaccines cause autism, despite the thorough discrediting of his 1998 study, which only involved 12 hand-picked children.

How did he respond today? He's still defiant: in an interview outside the hearing room, he said the charges were "unfounded and unjust" and then he proceeded to thank "the parents" who have supported him. And they have! As reported in The Times of London, he now pays himself a salary of $270,000 from his nonprofit corporation, Thoughtful House, which is supported mostly by donations. He lives in a wealthy suburb of Austin, Texas. And over at his TH website, he's posted a statement that repeats his claims that this is unfair, and that he is "dedicated to the recovery of these children." The statement goes on to warn about the possible link between MMR vaccines and autism. Wakefield really has no shame.

So finally the GMC did the right thing. But they acted far too late to prevent the damage caused by Wakefield's fraudulent study. I can only hope that their official action now will change the minds of at least a few of Wakefield's misguided supporters.

References (because I often get asked)
There are many studies showing that vaccines are safe and that there is no link to autism. The first one below is one of the largest, involving over 537,000 children (compared to just 12 in Wakefield's original study):
K. Madsen et al., A Population-Based Study of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccination and Autism, New England Journal of Medicine, 347:1477-1482 (November 7, 2002).
In this study, the vaccinated children were slightly LESS LIKELY to become autistic. The authors' own conclusion is "This study provides strong evidence against the hypothesis that MMR vaccination causes autism."

Farrington CP, Miller E, Taylor B (2001) MMR and autism: further evidence against a causal association. Vaccine 19: 3632–3635.

Fombonne E, Chakrabarti S (2001) No evidence for a new variant of measles-mumps-rubella-induced autism. Pediatrics 108: E58.

Fombonne et al (2006) Pervasive developmental disorders in Montreal, Quebec, Canada: prevalence and links with immunizations. Pediatrics 118: e139–150.

Honda H, Shimizu Y, Rutter M (2005) No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study. J Child Psychol Psychiatry 46: 572–579.

Kaye JA, et al (2001) Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time trend analysis. BMJ 322: 460–463.

Lingam R, et al. (2003) Prevalence of autism and parentally reported triggers in a north east London population. Arch Dis Child 88: 666–670.

Makela A, Nuorti JP, Peltola H (2002) Neurologic disorders after measles-mumps-rubella vaccination. Pediatrics 110: 957–963.

Patja A, et al. (2000) Serious adverse events after measles-mumps-rubella vaccination during a fourteen-year prospective follow-up. Pediatr Infect Dis J 19: 1127–1134.

Peltola H, et al. (1998) No evidence for measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine-associated inflammatory bowel disease or autism in a 14-year prospective study. Lancet 351: 1327–1328.

The worst scientific idea of the decade: vaccines cause autism

The year and the decade are coming to an end, and top-10 lists are everywhere. These are hard to put together if you want to do it right. I’m opting for a simpler list: the top 1, and I’ll make it for the entire decade.

Of all the bad science, bad medicine, and pseudoscientific nonsense that human beings have come up with over the past decade, which is the worst? Of course, scientists have bad ideas all the time, and most of them never make it out of the lab. So for me, “worst” means a bad scientific notion that has emerged into the public domain and done more damage to civilization, or to public health, than any other idea of the past decade.

To answer this question, I wanted a belief or practice that rose to prominence during the past 10 years, which eliminates a large number of pseudoscientific practices and quack treatments that have been around much longer, including acupuncture, chiropractic, and homeopathy. So what idea has taken hold only recently?

And the worst scientific idea of the 2000's is: vaccines cause autism. This idea has caught on and spread like wildfire during the past ten years, thanks largely to the well-funded, well-publicized efforts of organizations such as Generation Rescue, led by the notoriously mis-informed celebrities Jenny McCarthy and her even more famous boyfriend, the actor Jim Carrey.

Strictly speaking, this terrible idea was first published more than a decade ago, in a now-discredited, notorious 1998 paper in The Lancet by Andrew Wakefield, a British gastroenterologist. This very small study of 12 children seemed to show a link between the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine and autism, but it later turned out that the study had multiple flaws: Wakefield recruited the children to the study through a lawyer who was trying to build a case against vaccine makers, Wakefield himself received over $750,000 in consulting frees from the same lawyer, Wakefield didn’t tell his co-authors any of this, Wakefield had filed for a patent on an alternative, “safer” vaccine, and on and on. Although his co-authors repudiated the paper publicly and withdraw their conclusions in 2002, Wakefield has continued to this day to stand by his original claims. (See journalist Brian Deer’s website for a good summary of the Lancet scandal.) He moved to the U.S. after being forced out of his job at a London hospital, and he set up a private business in Texas from which he continues to promote his anti-vaccination claims.